ENERGY TREND | This week, the overall market confidence hit the rock bottom. Not only did China’s announcement of installed capacity fall short of expectations but the overall market is not more optimistic about the price after the end-of-month average contract price of the wafers was announced. 

The development of the upstream polysilicon and wafers did not live up to the market expectation. The price announcement did not motivate the downstream manufacturers of cells and modules to intensify their restocking, which indirectly triggers the sense of helplessness among them. Irrational price reductions and dumping are emerging in the overall market.

In the upcoming two months, the underperforming installed PV capacity has shaken the market confidence, which leads to the whole industry giving up on achieving the goal of 2019. It is getting more obvious that the businesses are pinning their hopes on the first half of 2020H1.

Polysilicon

The price of polysilicon shows a flattened trend this week. It seems unlikely that the expected huge increase in demand would take place. In order to stabilize the upcoming orders, the sellers manage to keep the price unchanged, even if this means the capacity needs to be slightly lower than last month. Only the prices in overseas markets are indirectly changed due to the exchange rate fluctuations.

In the overseas market, the price is revised up to 9.03~9.91USD/KG. The average price is raised to 9.30USD/KG. The global average price is raised to 9.15USD/KG.

In the domestic market, the mono-grade polysilicon remains unchanged at 75~78RMB/KG. The range of polysilicon price revision is 62~64RMB/KG. The average price remains unchanged at 63RMB/KG.

Wafers

This week, the price of wafers still did not pick up after the major players announced their average contract price for the next month. The prices of mono-Si wafers vary depending on the product categories. Some new small factories were joining the market, which seemed to increase the bargaining power of the buyers.

Therefore the range of the prices offered continued to widen. The multi-Si products are on a fast downward spiral after continuing the price reversal of PV cells from last week. Much capacity, which was switched to multi-Si productions, was switched back to mono-Si production.

The room for bargaining is expanding due to the growing inventory level.

In the overseas market, the price range of the multi-Si wafers is revised down to 0.228~0.232USD/Pc at the moment. The price of the black silicon products remains unchanged at 0.260USD/Pc.

The range of the 156.75mm mono-Si wafer price revision is 0.385~0.421USD/Pc. The average price remains unchanged at 0.405USD/Pc. The range of the 158.75mm mono-Si wafer price revision is 0.435~0.455USD/Pc. The price of the mono-Si wafers with the size of 161.75mm and above remains unchanged at 0.460 USD/Pc.

In the domestic market, the price range of the 156.75mm mono-Si wafers remains unchanged at 1.82~1.85RMB/Pc. The price of the black silicon products remains unchanged at 2.06RMB/Pc. The price range of the cast-mono wafers is revised down to 2.68~2.73RMB/Pc. The price range of the 156.75mm mono-Si wafers remains unchanged at 3.02~3.17RMB/Pc. The price range of the 158.75mm mono-Si wafers remains unchanged at 3.30~3.37RMB/Pc. The price range of the 166.75mm mono-Si wafers remains unchanged at 3.47RMB/Pc.

Cells

The cells see disarray in their market price and capacity this week. The production lines, which were producing multi-Si products, were switched back to Mono-Si products or simply stopped. The method of pricing was also changed.

The cells are now sold cell by cell, which led the overall market to be pessimistic about multi-Si products. Mono-Si cell prices remained stable, except in the overseas market, where more and more manufacturers resorted to price competition due to the arrival of new capacity.

In the overseas market, the price range of the general multi-Si cells remains unchanged at 0.098~0.123USD/W. The price range of the general mono-Si cells remains unchanged at 0.102~0.113USD/W. The price range of the high-efficiency mono-Si cell is revised down to 0.115~0.145USD/W. The average price is lowered to 0.120USD/W. The range of the superior high-efficiency mono-Si cell (>21.5%) price revision is 0.115~0.170USD/W. The average price is lowered to 0.125USD/W.

In the domestic market, the range of the general multi-Si cell price is 0.77~0.82RMB/W. The average price is lowered to 0.81RMB/W. The price of the high-efficiency multi-Si cells is raised to 0.87RMB/W. The price range of the general mono-Si cells remains unchanged at 0.82~0.85RMB. /W.

The price range of the high-efficiency mono-Si cells remains unchanged at 0.91~0.95RMB/W. The range of the superior high-efficiency mono-Si cells (>21.5%) price revision is 0.95~1.00RMB/W. The average price remains unchanged at 0.98RMB/W. The price of the bifacial high-efficiency mono-Si cells remains unchanged at 0.96RMB/W. The price of the bifacial superior high-efficiency mono-Si cells (>21.5%) remains unchanged at 1.01RMB/W.

Modules

The market price trend of the modules still varies, depending on the regional demand. It is even more difficult for the small and medium manufacturers to get purchase orders, followed by the pressure of the rising inventory level.

The expected boom is delayed yet again. Therefore the market is likely to remain pessimistic until the end of the year.

In the overseas market, the price range of the general multi-Si (270-275W) remains unchanged at 0.205~0.248USD/W at the moment. The average price is lowered to 0.208USD/W. The range of high-efficiency multi-Si (280-285W) price revision is 0.213~0.235USD/W. The average price is raised to 0.217USD/W. T

he price range of the general mono-Si (290-295W) remains unchanged at 0.235~0.251USD/W. The price range of the high-efficiency mono-Si (300-305W) remains unchanged at 0.265~0.315USD/W. The range of the superior-high efficiency mono-Si (>310W) price revision is 0.233~0.410USD/W. The average price is raised to 0.288USD/W.

In the domestic market, the range of the general multi-Si (270W~275W) price revision is 1.63~1.75RMB/W. The average price is lowered to 1.70RMB/W. The range of the general mono-Si (290W~295W) price revision is 1.78~1.84RMB/W. The average price remains unchanged at 1.83RMB/W. The range of the general mono-Si (290W~295W) price revision is 1.72~1.78RMB/W.

The average price is lowered to 1.77RMB/W. The range of the general mono-Si (300W~305W) price revision is 1.78~1.85RMB/W. The average price is lowered to 1.83RMB/W. The range of the superior-high efficiency mono-Si (>310W) price revision is 1.82~1.90RMB/W. The average price is lowered to 1.87RMB/W.

By Emma Hsu

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